Predictions

RBA interest-rate predictions, kept separate

Market pricing, economist forecasts and actual RBA decisions answer different questions. RBADay shows them side by side without combining them into an unsupported certainty score.

Market data live · verified 23 Sept 2026

Market expectation

What are markets pricing?

ASX market-implied probabilities

Hold

12%

+0.25 pts

88%

This is market pricing, not a guarantee of what the RBA will decide.

As of 2026-09-22ASX RBA Rate Tracker· verified 2026-09-23Source

This is a market-derived indicator based on 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures.

Economists

Forecasts for 2026-09-29

RBADay does not infer bank views from commentary. A forecast is displayed only when it has an institution, dated source and explicit meeting view.

CBA+0.25 pts · 4.60%23 September 2026

NABNot published

ANZ+0.25 pts · 4.60%23 September 2026

Westpac+0.25 pts · 4.60%23 September 2026

CBA · 23 September 2026RBA expected to lift interest rates next week: CBA economistsSource

ANZ · 23 September 2026Consumer confidence pulls back | ANZSource

Westpac · 23 September 2026Westpac brings forward rate hike call to SeptemberSource

The latest official result

11 Aug 2026

RBA held the cash rate target at 4.35%

Actual result

The official result is historical and is not an expectation for the next meeting.

Read the meeting page

How to read the page

Use “markets are pricing” for the futures-derived indicator and “economists forecast” for sourced institution views. Use “the RBA decided” only for the official result.

RBADay has no independent forecast. That is intentional: aggregation and provenance are more useful here than a made-up score.

If a value can’t be traced to a source, reference date and verification time, it is not published.