Rates outlook
When will interest rates go down in Australia?
The cash rate target is 4.60% after the RBA raised it on 29 September 2026. Markets are not pricing a cut at the next decision on 3 November 2026. The most recent cut was on 12 August 2025.
Updated 29 October 2026 from RBA, ASX and ABS data
Market expectation
What are markets pricing?
Pricing for the 3 Nov 2026 decision
ASX market-implied probabilities
Hold
20%
Hike +0.25 pts
80%
This is market pricing, not a guarantee of what the RBA will decide.
This is a market-derived indicator based on 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures.
Where rates have been heading
In the past twelve months the RBA has made 8 decisions: 4 increases, 0 cuts and 4 holds. The cash rate target was 3.60% a year ago and is 4.60% now.
See every move in the cash rate history.
What the RBA needs to see
The RBA’s target is annual inflation between 2 and 3%. The latest readings are annual CPI inflation of 4.3% (2026-09) and trimmed mean of 3.6% (2026-09). Rate cuts generally become more likely as inflation settles back inside the target band, and less likely while it stays above it.
Upcoming decision dates
- 3 November 2026, 2:30 pm
- 8 December 2026, 2:30 pm
- 9 February 2027, 2:30 pm
- 23 March 2027, 2:30 pm
If rates are cut
What a 0.25 point cut would save each month
Approximate fall in monthly repayments if a lender passes on a quarter-point cut in full.
| Loan balance | Cut of 0.25 pts | Cut of 0.50 pts |
|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | −$63 / month−$753 / year | −$125 / month−$1,499 / year |
| $500,000 | −$78 / month−$942 / year | −$156 / month−$1,874 / year |
| $600,000 | −$94 / month−$1,130 / year | −$187 / month−$2,248 / year |
| $750,000 | −$118 / month−$1,413 / year | −$234 / month−$2,811 / year |
| $1,000,000 | −$157 / month−$1,884 / year | −$312 / month−$3,747 / year |
Estimates assume a 6.74% variable principal-and-interest loan (the typical advertised variable rate at the big banks) with 25 years remaining and full pass-through by the lender. Your repayments depend on your own rate, balance, term and lender. General information only, not financial advice. Use the calculator for your loan.
Work out your own numbers with the rate change calculator.
Common questions
Who decides interest rates in Australia?
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board sets the cash rate target at eight scheduled meetings a year and announces each decision at 2:30pm Sydney time. Banks then set their own lending rates, which usually move with the cash rate but are not required to.
How quickly do banks pass on a rate cut?
Major lenders usually announce within days whether they will pass on a cut, with the new variable rate taking effect one to two weeks later. Your repayment may not fall until your next repayment is recalculated; some lenders keep repayments the same unless you ask.
Does a cash rate cut lower fixed rates?
Existing fixed-rate loans do not change until the fixed period ends. New fixed rates are priced from longer-term funding costs and expectations for future rates, so they often move before the RBA does.
What would make the RBA cut rates?
The RBA aims to keep annual inflation between 2 and 3% while supporting full employment. Inflation moving sustainably back into that band, or a material weakening in the jobs market, would generally make a cut more likely. No single data release decides it.
General information only. RBADay does not forecast RBA decisions; market pricing reflects traders’ expectations and changes daily.